SHARPENING YOUR NEGOTIATING AX: PREPARATION PRECEDES THE SETTLEMENT
I like Abraham Lincoln’s adage about preparation: “If I had eight hours to chop down a tree, I'd spend six hours sharpening my ax.” This post is about sharpening our negotiating axes through a pattern of preparation that includes rigorous legal analysis. My friend and fellow mediator, Don Philbin of San Antonio, Texas wrote one of the finest articles I have read on the subject entitled, “Prepare for Mediation: A Multidisciplinary Approach to Negotiation Preparation." You can read his article by clicking here. (PDF) It will surely sharpen your negotiation skills and help you efficiently resolve many difficult disputes. Here is a summary of Don's article:
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Rigorous Legal Analysis Forms the Basis Negotiation Preparation.
[Preparation] is the be-all of good trial work. . . . Everything else, felicity of expression, improvisational brilliance, is a satellite around the sun. Thorough preparation is that sun. -Louis Nizer
In reviewing the essentials of the rigorous legal analyses that lie at the base of any economic analysis, New York litigator Louis Solomon concludes that “the importance of intelligent, critical, analytical, yet realistic case evaluation cannot be overstated.” Solomon notes that case evaluations should begin early and be updated consistently, including at certain regular intervals.The goal is assessing risk, not achieving perfection. In a recent article, he condenses the evaluation process into five key steps:
identify potential issues;
evaluate issue relationships and overall case bearing;
evaluate the risk or probability of each outcome (fact and law intensive);
evaluate possible upside and downside exposure; and
identify the indirect and collateral issues from the client’s perspective.
2. Decision Tree Analysis Helps Develop and Test Scenarios
In decision tree analysis, you establish the key events of the litigation through trial. You then estimate the probability for success of the key events and the dollar values of the potential final outcomes. A decision tree visually depicts this process in as much detail as may be desired. A more complex decision tree may include the chances of success of potentially dispositive motions, such as summary judgment, or the impact of rulings on certain key evidence. On the other hand, a basic decision tree may only depict liability and damage issues.
When evaluating liability and damages, you start with the basic question: what is the chance of prevailing on the issue of liability? If liability can be established, what is the amount that will be awarded for damages? The outcome will provide a range for settlement purposes
The process itself is as valuable as the result because it structures our analysis and focuses our attention on the component parts of the problem. In considering the range of outcomes and their probabilities, the parties not only come to a more realistic view of their options, they are able to communicate those scenarios in a common vernacular.
You can read my post on decision trees entiled, Dispute Resolution, Decision Trees, and Albert Einstein by clicking here.
3. Anchoring
As we move from dispute analysis to negotiation planning, we are often faced with the decision to either make the first offer or await one from the other side. That decision turns on a number of variables. One commentator argues that anchoring “describes the process by which the human mind does virtually all of its inferential work.” Anchors function much like our “gut” reactions to the value of an object or lawsuit – the “thin slice” our subconscious sends our conscious mind to evaluate. The more relevant information our analytical mind has, the less we are swayed by an unreasonable anchor. Mistaken or misguided anchors can increase the odds of impasse and have other unintended consequences.
4. Preparation Provides a Framework for Options
Litigants must make choices [about the claims] or turn them over to others for a binding decision. Unwilling to drain every swamp looking for evidence, they are often faced with making decisions with less than perfect information. The challenge then is to make the best decision with the information they do have or budget an appropriate amount based upon the developed choices. Economic analysis helps narrow the field from the legally possible to the economically viable
Outstanding trial lawyers spent considerable time and effort honing their skills to be effective courtroom advocates. But since most cases settle before a verdict is reached, it is equally important to develop effective negotiation advocacy skills. I hope you will spend some time with Don's article to help you sharpen your ax.


Parties hungering for their day in court must digest the potential repercussions of the carrot and stick procedures enacted by their respective legislatures to encourage the pre-trial settlement of disputes.